March Overview

Source: SSE, SZSE, HKEX, CESC. Data cut-off date: 31 Mar 2024.
*SouthBound/Northbound ETF ADT: ADT under Stock Connect.

Top 10 Northbound ETFs of March

TOP 10 ETFs by AUM
Rank	Code	Name	AUM (RMB mil)
1	510300	Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF	195,244.58
2	510310	E Fund CSI 300 ETF Initiating Fund	134,714.31
3	510050	ChinaAMC China 50 ETF	112,468.96
4	159919	Harvest CSI 300 ETF	105,763.28
5	510330	ChinaAMC CSI 300 ETF	98,124.60
6	510500	China Southern CSI 500 ETF	78,226.69
7	588000	ChinaAMC China Science And Technology Innovation Board 50 Component ETF	72,932.62
8	159915	E Fund ChiNext ETF	55,268.20
9	588080	E Fund China Science And Technology Innovation Board 50 Component ETF	35,215.26
10	512880	Guotai CSI All Share Investment Banking & Brokerage Index ETF	30,153.03

• Huatai-PB: In March, the CSI 300 Index experienced a 0.61% increase. Ongoing efforts are being made to enhance market confidence and restore the economic environment. The gradual improvement of macro data since March is a positive indication. If upcoming price data also performs well, it is likely that the bullish trend in the market will continue. Our outlook for Beta remains optimistic, and we are confident in the performance of large caps. (08/04/2024)

• China AMC: 上证50指数行业分布均衡，相对其他大盘宽基指数，略偏向金融消费行业，复苏链相关板块成份股权重较高，是政策和经济复苏受益的投资方向。(04/03/2024)

• Guotai Fund: The current policy is still in a virtuous cycle, and it is expected that active capital market measures will be further implemented in the future, boosting market sentiment and trading activity, and laying the foundation for performance growth for securities companies. In addition, the promotion of capital market reforms such as the comprehensive registration system is also expected to bring new business development opportunities for deepening the reform of the securities market. (08/04/2024)

 

TOP10 ETFs by Monthly Return
Rank	Code	Name	Return (1Month)
1	512400	China Southern CSI SWS Non-Ferrous Metal ETF	11.98%
2	516150	Harvest CSI Rare Earth Industry ETF	6.24%
3	562990	E Fund CSI SEEE CARBON NEUTRAL ETF	5.03%
4	159639	China Southern CSI SEEE CARBON NEUTRAL ETF	4.75%
5	515880	Guotai CSI All Share Communication Equipment ETF	4.62%
6	159611	GF CSI All Share Power Public Service ETF	4.30%
7	560050	China Universal MSCI China A50 Interconnection ETF	3.86%
8	563000	E Fund MSCI China A50 Interconnection ETF	3.85%
9	159602	China Southern MSCI China A50 Interconnection ETF	3.71%
10	515050	ChinaAMC CSI 5G Communication Theme ETF	3.58%

• China Southern: 近期以金、铜为代表的大宗商品呈现快速上行态势，即便上周五晚公布的美国3月新增非农就业人数大超预期达30.3万人，创2023年5月以来的最大增速，美联储降息预期也逐步弱化，但黄金仍一骑绝尘。这轮金价上行的核心是对美元信用体系的对冲，降息预期交易在部分时段助推了金价上涨，但核心驱动已经转变为中国等新兴市场国家央行在去美元化背景下的购金行为，以及全球地缘冲突迭起背景下的避险需求。金价呈现中枢不断抬升之势，黄金的货币属性主导了此轮金价长周期上行。当前黄金股估值相对合理，金价上行将进一步助推股价修复。而如铜、铝为代表的资源品本身供需偏紧之际，金融属性将进一步放大其价格弹性。因此，大宗商品的牛市是可以预期的，尤其是有色的需求是全球性的，美国3月制造业PMI和非农数据再度凸显其经济韧性，软着陆预期强化推动铜价上涨，而受益于海外需求上升，中国制造业PMI数据也开始超预期。四月份大盘整体可能难有大行情，但是随着金铜的强势行情，有色金属可以重点关注。(10/04/2023)

• Harvest Fund: Benefiting from the resonance of multiple factors, the rare earth industry has ushered in a rebound: Firstly, rare earths are upstream in the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry. Over the past two years, their market trends have followed the NEV sector, experiencing significant declines. Recently, with the entry of new players in the downstream vehicle market and technological breakthroughs leading to industry chain upgrades, there is a fundamental reversal momentum. Additionally, over the past two months, the battery industry's production scheduling has exceeded expectations, objectively contributing to the rebound momentum. The entire NEV sector has initiated a recovery from adversity, with rare earths, as the direct upstream of NEV motors, directly benefiting. Secondly, rare earths are also a type of metal resource. With the recent increase in market panic, shifts in supply and demand dynamics, and the anticipation of overseas interest rate cuts, the prices of commodities such as oil, gold, and copper have risen. This has driven an increase in investment enthusiasm and expectations in the entire non-ferrous metals sector. As rare earths are a strategically scarce resource where our country holds an absolute advantage and are part of the non-ferrous metals sector, they follow the upward cycle of the entire industry. At the same time, after more than a year of decline, both the stock prices and commodity prices of rare earths are currently at absolute and relative lows. From a point of view, the current rare earth industry index is similar to the level around May 2021, before the last rare earth market boom, which is not high in absolute terms. Moreover, the current price of the rare earth industry index has dropped about 40% from the high point in 2021, indicating a significant decline, and the room for upward movement at the current juncture is considerable. Finally, in early March of this year, the price of the main rare earth oxide, neodymium-praseodymium oxide, fell to its lowest at 340,000 yuan/ton, approaching the price level of 2020, indicating a severe overshoot. The market generally expected the price to bottom out. In early April, the price of neodymium-praseodymium rebounded rapidly and has now reached around 400,000 yuan/ton. The bottoming out and rebound of commodity prices have driven an improvement in the investment sentiment and expectations for the entire sector. (10/04/2024)

• Guotai Fund: As the fundamental component of data transmission, the demand for optical modules will experience explosive growth under the catalysis of large models. Chinese optical module enterprises occupy over 60% of the global market share, with a significant first mover advantage. Winning North American orders has high certainty, high performance visibility, and strong landing ability. (08/04/2024)

 

TOP 10 ETFs by Monthly Net-Buy
Rank	Code	Name	Net Buy** (RMB mil)
1	510310	E Fund CSI 300 ETF Initiating Fund	16,810.50
2	510300	Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF	6,367.77
3	159919	Harvest CSI 300 ETF	4,103.55
4	510330	ChinaAMC CSI 300 ETF	3,948.08
5	510500	China Southern CSI 500 ETF	2,346.67
6	512100	China Southern CSI 1000 ETF	1,387.59
7	512500	ChinaAMC CSI 500 ETF	1,254.03
8	515220	Guotai CSI Coal ETF	1,252.58
9	159922	Harvest CSI 500 ETF	1,132.11
10	159925	China Southern CSI 300 ETF	1,048.40

• China AMC: 春节前后，伴随降准降息等利好政策落地，股市走出V型反转，成交额多次破万亿，市场情绪趋向活跃。2024年是稳增长政策产生效果的发力之年，美联储货币政策转向之年，相信市场会出现更多重要、积极的变化。沪深300指数作为A股大盘宽基指数，行业分布均衡分散，是低位整体布局A股的核心工具。(04/03/2024)
• China Southern: 国内宏观经济数据仍底部运行，消费活动温和恢复，但地产和基建投资存在持续减速的压力；美国经济数据与通胀预期均指向美联储转向交易短期仍存不确定性，维持通胀和海外利率有一定粘性的判断，预计将持续压制大盘蓝筹表现。当前中证500、中证1000等中小盘指数估值仍处历史低位，安全边际较高；国家政策多次强调“新质生产力”概念，重点聚焦战略新兴产业，也构成对成长新经济的催化。短期市场经过反弹后或偏区间盘整，建议企稳后超配中小市值风格，有望获取超额收益。(10/04/2024)

• Guotai Fund: In the context of coal transformation and "dual carbon", coal enterprises generally have a weak willingness to reinvest traditional main business capital, which also means that the number of new coal mines in China in the future is limited, and coal prices are supported. In addition, high-quality upstream resource enterprises have the characteristics of "high dividends+high dividends", indicating that the sector has certain investment value. (08/04/2024)

 

TOP 10 ETFs by Monthly ADT
Rank	Code	Name	ADT*** (RMB mil)
1	510300	Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF	3,516.54
2	510050	ChinaAMC China 50 ETF	2,640.83
3	588000	ChinaAMC China Science And Technology Innovation Board 50 Component ETF	2,215.11
4	510500	China Southern CSI 500 ETF	2,121.83
5	159915	E Fund ChiNext ETF	2,062.45
6	510310	E Fund CSI 300 ETF Initiating Fund	1,839.71
7	159919	Harvest CSI 300 ETF	1,471.93
8	512100	China Southern CSI 1000 ETF	1,210.70
9	510330	ChinaAMC CSI 300 ETF	1,148.00
10	512880	Guotai CSI All Share Investment Banking & Brokerage Index ETF	1,083.76

• China AMC: “以科技创新引领现代化产业体系建设”是2024年经济工作的首要任务，科创板是我国新质生产力的代表，结合当前处于人工智能等产业变革的关键节点，政策支持叠加产业趋势有望驱动科创板内生增长进一步提升。科创50指数对科创板具有较强的代表性。(04/03/2024)
• Harvest Fund: In February, the domestic CPI exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, a significant increase of 1.5 percentage points from the previous value, ending four consecutive months of negative growth. Although the year-on-year correction of CPI is mainly due to the misalignment of the Spring Festival, consumption is indeed steadily recovering. At the same time, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.8% in March, returning above the 50% line after a 5-month hiatus. This indicates that the production and operation activities of the manufacturing industry have entered the expansion range again, and the rebound rate exceeds seasonality. Although the problem of insufficient demand still exists, with the gradual implementation of policies and the transmission of positive signals through PMI data, the macroeconomic situation is expected to continue to improve. The CSI 300 Index, as a core asset in the A-share market, is expected to fully benefit. Considering that the industry of the CSI 300 Index is relatively balanced and the growth attributes of technological innovation continue to strengthen, the current valuation of the CSI 300 Index is 11.71 times, at the 27% percentile in the past 10 years and the 24% percentile in the past 5 years, and the valuation is still at the historical bottom area. At present, the investment value of the CSI 300 Index is relatively high, with the potential for valuation restoration and significant allocation value. (09/04/2024)

Southbound Eligible ETFs Overview

Code	Name	Tracking Index	AUM (HKD mil)	1M Return	Net Buy** (HKD mil, 1M)	ADT*** (HKD mil, 1M)
2800	TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG	Hang Seng Index	122,960.35	0.63%	-1,760.37	7,189.32
2828	HANG SENG CHINA ENTERPRISES INDEX ETF	Hang Seng China Enterprises Index	22,903.92	2.31%	-4,427.44	2,866.23
3033	CSOP HANG SENG TECH INDEX ETF	Hang Seng TECH Index	29,033.25	1.33%	-388.49	1,716.45
3067	ISHARES HANG SENG TECH ETF	Hang Seng TECH Index	9,216.02	1.38%	-167.46	101.48
3037	CSOP HSI ETF	Hang Seng Index	1,288.41	0.63%	0.00	1.51
3032	HSTECH ETF	Hang Seng TECH Index	2,786.82	1.35%	-19.01	41.42
2837	GX HS TECH	Hang Seng TECH Index	3,314.03	1.37%	0.00	0.39
3088	CAM HS TECH	Hang Seng TECH Index	1,963.28	1.36%	43.13	35.60

Source: SSE, SZSE, HKEX, CESC. Data cut-off date: 31 Mar 2024.
**Net-Buy(estimated)= Σ(Fund units Increment × Daily Turnover / Daily Volume)
***ADT: ADT in home market 

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